Electric Plane and eVTOLs – When will they take off?

Every year airlines emit 915 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere contributing to global climate change. And the international Civil Aviation organization predict that if nothing is done, these aviation emissions could increase 3 times by 2050. _^[1]

To solve this issue the airline manufactures are designing more efficient aircrafts and experimenting with alternative fuels such as biofuel. This can help temporarily but to completely remove the industry’s carbon footprint, air-transport has to go green.

So immense pressure is building on airline companies to come up with viable clean solution, before governments either ban fuel-powered air travel or planet runs out of fossil fuel. One possible solution to this is battery powered Electric plane and eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircrafts.

Currently maximum range that an all-electric 9 seater plane has done is 300 km / 185 miles in half and hour time. _^[2] So we are not yet ready to replace commercial long-distance flights yet. But short-distances like interstate or cross-country travel is quite possible today with Electric planes.

Success Story of Electric Plane

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Most ideal application for electric plane, is flight training. Capturing this market first is a company called Pipistrel in Slovenia, which has operational lightweight 2 persons aircraft which weighs only 350 kg including batteries. Company has 3 all-electric aircrafts which provide over 1hr of flight time excluding 30 minutes reserve. ^_[3]

This electric aircraft require no special jet fuel, just normal electricity and very less maintenance for its electric motor compared to fuel powered plane. It’s also capable of battery swap technology under 5 minutes. Pipistrel says “cost of pilot training can be cut by as much as 70%, making flying more affordable than ever before.” _^[4]

Problem with Battery Weight

So let me address this elephant in the room …quite literally. Unlike with existing fuel which burns up in atmosphere thus reducing weight of the aircraft as it flies along. The fundamental problem with batteries is their weight which remains the same at take-off and landing.

But decades of advancement and development in battery technology seen with rise of Electric cars, at least 2 major battery issues like cost and speed of charging have been improved. So only when the weight of battery is significantly reduced then battery-powered aircrafts will make sense.

But weight issue aside, the cost of powering, maintaining an electric aircraft are significantly low compared to clunky century old combustion engine fuel aircraft. For e.g. A small fuel powered aircraft of 10 passengers spends around $4 on jet-fuel per mile. Whereas with electricity this could be as low as $0.10 today.

If electrifying plans can make airfare 40 times cheaper than public and commercial acceptance will follow. Also the size of electric motor with batteries replacing big heavy combustion engine in smaller aircrafts is as good as replacing its substituted weight.

And for lesser distances, eVTOLs fit the bill perfectly. In cities where there is no place left to build road, trains or subway or even airports. Such EVA (electric vertical aircraft) can be deployed from area which take fractional space of traditional runway.

eVTOLs rethinks Air Transportation

eVTOLs aircrafts can be considered a mixture of drone, helicopter or a flying car. There are as many as 180 companies currently working on solution specific to future markets. Hence they are coming in different shapes and sizes.

The design incorporates fly-by-wire controls (flight without a pilot) or will be capable of autonomous programmable flight. It will have obstacle avoidance system commonly found in drones and its signature will be its noise which will be far less than a helicopter for acceptance in urban areas.

eVTOLs eliminates the economics of operating a large airport. Its micro airport or “Urban Air Port” as its referred as can be constructed in the middle of cities maybe on roof of building, on dockyards or anywhere where it is difficult to construct other forms of high speed transportation network.

There are already many delivery drone services operating around the world. But there hasn’t been a passenger drone service yet. World’s first Urban Air Port is planned to open in November 2021 in Coventry, UK dedicated to electric air-taxis and drones has received funding from the UK government. _^[5]

A market report study by NASA on Urban Air Mobility shows a potential of $2.5 billion a year industry. Reports also highlights the challenges significant legal and regulatory, weather, certification, noise and public perception. Also mentions current battery technology as a barrier in near term. _^[6]

Future of Electric Plane and eVTOLs

For next 20 years Urban Air Mobility investment is predicted to reach $318 billion. _^[7] New startups are cropping up to capitalise on this opportunity and catching up this excitement some of the forefront companies are Joby Aviation, Kitty Hawk, Lilium and Volocopter.

While legacy aircraft manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing are playing along so that they do not fall behind the trend. And as pressure from aviation bodies and countries will increase forcing them to adapt to cleaner air transport solutions.

Hence long distance flights will start experiment hybrid technologies with use of alternative fuel sources like hydrogen. _^[8] Also due to limited amount of fossil fuel, air tickets will start to increase. Both battery and hydrogen powered aircraft technologies will thus accelerate.

Range of Electric plane and eVTOLs will start to come closer to fuel or hybrid powered plane. When the efficiency and cost of Electric plane and eVTOLs outweigh the traditional plane then lesser investment will be made in declining fuel-powered aircraft technology.

Electric plane and eVTOLs will start becoming commercially available for rideshare services and short domestic flights in 2030s and have wide applications. During the 2040s battery powered aircrafts will likely dominate domestic flights between smaller airports.

Meanwhile hydrogen will be used for long distance flights between large international airports where hydrogen infrastructure will be installed both kinds of aircrafts. Helping to make make aviation green by transition human civilization into sustainable transportation.

Revolution Electrified’s Thoughts

It’s hard to visualise a future for Electric plane and eVTOLs taking off. But it may repeat the same history as Electric cars did for Fossil fuel cars. As due to exponential improvement in battery technology its weight issue might be reduced too.

But chances are it probably won’t completely replace long-distance commercial flights in our lifetime. The reason for this is in current battery technology, like lithium-ion battery stores up to 239 Watt hours per kg. Whereas jet fuel has about 12,000 Watt hours per kg.

Other promising zero-emission approach, that Airbus is hoping to achieve by 2035 is investing in Hydrogen powered aircraft. _^[9] But liquid Hydrogen needs to be stored at -253C which may mean heavy cryogenic fuel systems. So we have to see how fast or far hydrogen technology leads us.

Most eVTOLs in design are working on Air-Taxi or Sight-Seeing business which may remain novelty for riches unless cost is drastically low compared to other forms of urban transportations in future. So this utopia is still far away to urgent climate change solutions we need today.

But whichever technology precedes its exciting to see that the future is moving away from fossil fuels. And its important to recognizes climate change as a fundamental global challenge that each person needs to accept and help reduce their carbon footprint.